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Caelion

Log · week of 2–6 Mar 2026

Conditions turn Risk-off.

Nifty 500 breadth 35%, down 7 points. Nifty 50 −2.9% on the week.

The five conditions

  • TrendNifty 50 above its 200-day average−3.5%Not met
  • BreadthAt least half the Nifty 500 above their 200-day average35%Not met
  • FearIndia VIX below its 70th percentile89th percentile▽ newNot met
  • DepthNifty 50 within 10% of its record close−7.1%Met
  • MomentumNifty 50 up over one month−5.1%Not met

Changed since last week: fear no longer met.

The index

Nifty 50 close
24,450
−2.9% on the week
From its record
−7.1%
India VIX
19.88
89th percentile so far

Breadth

Nifty 500 above 200-day
35%
down 7 pts on the week
All 2,073 stocks
18%
Large caps
50%
Small caps
28%

Crossings

Against the 50-day average: 39 crossed above, 232 below.

Rotation

Breadth rose most
  • Energy33% above▲ +3 pts
Breadth fell most
  • Cement9% above▽ −9 pts
  • Auto36% above▽ −9 pts
  • Metals29% above▽ −8 pts
Changed quadrant on the orbit map
  • HealthcareImproving → Leading
  • CementWeakening → Lagging
  • FMCGLagging → Improving
  • PowerImproving → Lagging

Leaders

60 leaders · +31 joined · −31 left

Above both averages and within 5% of the 52-week high. A description of where prices sat, not a selection.