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Caelion
Observatory

The sky tonight · week of 19 Oct 2026

above the horizon.

Each star is an NSE stock. Above the horizon means above its own 200‑day average.

Risk-off1 of 5 → conditions met: open the briefing
Now · Breadth, every stock
Week of 19 Oct 2026
Today: Risk-off

01Participation

How many stocks are above the line?

15 of 50
30% of the Nifty 50 above its 200-day average
Every NSE stock is a dot, stacked by how far its close sits from its own 200-day average, the line long-term investors watch. The fifty largest are drawn in white: filled above the line, hollow below.
Above its 200-dayBelowRest of the 500
The Nifty 50 against every other NSE stockone dot per stock · 5% bins

Source: every NSE mainboard stock (EQ and BE series); adjusted daily closes, Yahoo Finance; latest closes, NSE bhavcopy. Weekly readings computed by Caelion Observatory. Week of 19 Oct 2026.

02Breadth over the year

Is the market broad, or carried by a few?

42% above the line
the median stock sits −3.5% from its 200-day
Every stock, every week for a year: each column is one week, each band 5% of distance from the 200-day average, brighter where more stocks sit. The white line is the median stock. When the body of the market sinks under the dashed line, most stocks are falling, whatever the index says.
Where every NSE stock sits, every weekdistance from the 200-day · 5% bands · 52 weeks

Source: every NSE mainboard stock (EQ and BE series); adjusted daily closes, Yahoo Finance; latest closes, NSE bhavcopy. Weekly readings computed by Caelion Observatory.

03Sectors

Where is the strength?

Healthcare 57%
Biggest four-week shift: Utilities ▽60 pts
Each row is a sector: the share of its stocks above their own 200-day average four weeks ago (hollow) and now (filled), sorted by the change. Strength building at the top, leaking at the bottom; rotation shows here before it shows in the index.
Four weeks agoThis week
Share of each sector above its 200-day averagefour weeks ago → now, sorted by change

Source: every NSE mainboard stock (EQ and BE series); adjusted daily closes, Yahoo Finance; latest closes, NSE bhavcopy. Weekly readings computed by Caelion Observatory. NSE sector classification; sectors with five or more stocks.

04This week · 19 Oct 2026

What changed?

▲ 22 crossed above
their 200-day average this week
Stocks that closed above their 200-day average this week after closing below it last week, strongest first. Each line is the last thirteen weeks against the average (dashed).
Stocks that crossed their 200-day average this weekdistance from the average · 13 weeks
▲ Crossed above22
  1. LAGNAM+18.9%
  2. DCMSRIND+17.6%
  3. UNIONBANK+5.1%
  4. J&KBANK+3.0%
  5. PASHUPATI+2.6%
  6. ESTER+2.4%
  7. PLATIND+2.1%
  8. GALLANTT+1.4%
  9. MANORG+1.3%
  10. INGERRAND+1.3%
  11. KANANIIND+1.1%
  12. RAJRATAN+1.1%

All 22 are listed in the Briefing

▽ Crossed below79
  1. JSFB−6.2%
  2. CLEDUCATE−6.1%
  3. VISHWARAJ−5.9%
  4. SHIVATEX−4.6%
  5. MTEDUCARE−4.5%
  6. SIGMA−4.2%
  7. TEJASNET−4.0%
  8. MEDICAMEQ−3.8%
  9. AXISBANK−3.8%
  10. TGBHOTELS−3.6%
  11. MALUPAPER−3.3%
  12. SHOPERSTOP−3.2%

All 79 are listed in the Briefing

Source: every NSE mainboard stock (EQ and BE series); adjusted daily closes, Yahoo Finance; latest closes, NSE bhavcopy. Weekly readings computed by Caelion Observatory. Week of 19 Oct 2026.

05Leadership

Who is leading?

111 leaders
within 5% of the 52-week high, above the 50- and 200-day averages
The neighbourhood of the highs: every stock within 20% of its 52-week high and above its 200-day average. Leaders sit in the shaded strip; they are the names that kept rising while the index fell. All of them are listed, the same screen as in the Briefing.
LeaderNear the high, not leading
Within 20% of the 52-week high, above the 200-day694 stocks · 111 leading
All 111, closest to the high first
  1. TBZ0.0%
  2. VIJIFIN0.0%
  3. BAFNAPH0.0%
  4. CUBEXTUB0.0%
  5. DSKULKARNI0.0%
  6. VALIANTLAB0.0%
  7. RATNAVEER0.0%
  8. PCJEWELLER0.0%
  9. SBC0.0%
  10. PANACHE0.0%
  11. QUINTEGRA0.0%
  12. ONWARDTEC0.0%
  13. UNITEDPOLY0.0%
  14. SMARTLINK0.0%
  15. KRISHANA0.0%
  16. KROSS0.0%
  17. SHRINGARMS0.0%
  18. RBZJEWEL0.0%
  19. SONAMLTD0.0%
  20. MVGJL0.0%
  21. AAREYDRUGS0.0%
  22. THELEELA0.0%
  23. SHYAMMETL0.0%
  24. DHANBANK0.0%
  25. SOUTHBANK0.0%
  26. TIPSMUSIC0.0%
  27. TEXINFRA0.0%
  28. KARURVYSYA0.0%
  29. MGEL0.0%
  30. MUFIN0.0%
  31. KALYANI0.0%
  32. LAURUSLABS0.0%
  33. OMFREIGHT−0.1%
  34. PVRINOX−0.2%
  35. LAGNAM−0.2%
  36. CEIGALL−0.4%
  37. WHEELS−0.5%
  38. WORTHPERI−0.6%
  39. TECHM−0.6%
  40. KMEW−0.7%
  41. OAL−0.8%
  42. ONELIFECAP−0.9%
  43. HITECHCORP−0.9%
  44. SHIVAUM−0.9%
  45. ADVANCE−1.0%
  46. GCSL−1.0%
  47. STOVEKRAFT−1.1%
  48. AVADHSUGAR−1.1%
  49. HFCL−1.1%
  50. NRL−1.1%
  51. ABDL−1.2%
  52. NITINSPIN−1.2%
  53. VHLTD−1.2%
  54. KOTAKBANK−1.3%
  55. SWANDEF−1.3%
  56. AVTNPL−1.3%
  57. GOODLUCK−1.4%
  58. ONEPOINT−1.5%
  59. SANATHAN−1.5%
  60. INDHOTEL−1.6%
  61. AUSOMENT−1.6%
  62. 63MOONS−1.8%
  63. ORIENTHOT−1.9%
  64. SUNTV−2.0%
  65. SHANTIGOLD−2.0%
  66. MANBA−2.1%
  67. SHREEPUSHK−2.3%
  68. CASTROLIND−2.4%
  69. GLOBAL−2.4%
  70. PTCIL−2.6%
  71. LOTUSDEV−2.6%
  72. SHRIPISTON−2.7%
  73. HAL−2.8%
  74. ANANDRATHI−2.8%
  75. GULFPETRO−2.8%
  76. VINDHYATEL−2.8%
  77. TFCILTD−2.9%
  78. CYIENT−3.0%
  79. SSWL−3.0%
  80. MANAKSTEEL−3.0%
  81. SKYGOLD−3.1%
  82. ESAFSFB−3.1%
  83. SHREEJISPG−3.1%
  84. RGL−3.2%
  85. CUB−3.2%
  86. NAZARA−3.3%
  87. VENKEYS−3.4%
  88. STARPAPER−3.6%
  89. SAMBHV−3.7%
  90. NYKAA−3.7%
  91. GEECEE−3.8%
  92. KTKBANK−3.9%
  93. EMAMIPAP−4.0%
  94. NINSYS−4.0%
  95. PGIL−4.0%
  96. FINEORG−4.0%
  97. INDGN−4.1%
  98. GLAND−4.2%
  99. ASAHISONG−4.2%
  100. LGEINDIA−4.2%
  101. GANDHAR−4.2%
  102. EBGNG−4.3%
  103. BMWVENTLTD−4.3%
  104. KOPRAN−4.3%
  105. RUBYMILLS−4.4%
  106. TATVA−4.4%
  107. COFORGE−4.5%
  108. BIL−4.6%
  109. MEESHO−4.6%
  110. IRISDOREME−4.7%
  111. ISFT−4.8%

Source: every NSE mainboard stock (EQ and BE series); adjusted daily closes, Yahoo Finance; latest closes, NSE bhavcopy. Weekly readings computed by Caelion Observatory. 52-week high: highest close of the last 252 sessions.

06The Nifty 50 since Oct 2016

How deep is this fall?

−15.6% at the low
−13.1% today · 4th deepest of 7 since Oct 2016
Every fall of a tenth or more, each drawn from its own peak so the shapes line up. 3 of 6 past falls were back at their old high within 194 sessions; the other 3 stood between −10% and −3% at this point. This one is at −13.1%.
Down to the lowBack to the old highNot yet recovered
Every Nifty 50 fall of 10% or more, from its peaksessions from each peak · % below it

Source: Nifty 50 daily closes, Yahoo Finance, to 19 Oct 2026. Drawn every third session, with each low and the latest close exact.

07India VIX since Oct 2021

Is fear high?

14.77
58th percentile of every close since Oct 2021
Implied volatility, the market's price of protection, against the bands of its own history. Tonight is higher than on 58% of sessions: VIX is below its 70th percentile, so the fear condition is met.
70th percentile: the fear condition's line
India VIX, every other sessionbands: percentiles of its own history

Source: India VIX daily closes, Yahoo Finance, since 19 Oct 2021.

08The verdict

Risk-off.

1 of 5 conditions met
Below trend, narrow participation, deep below the peak, falling month. Met: fear contained. A description of conditions, not a recommendation. Open the briefing for this week's names and screens, or press play on the time machine to watch the year.
The five conditions, this week4–5 Risk-on · 2–3 Mixed · 0–1 Risk-off
  • Is the index above its long-term trend?
    −5.4%✕ No
  • Are most stocks participating?
    40%✕ No
  • Is fear contained?
    58th pct✓ Yes
  • Is the index near its highs?
    −13.1%✕ No
  • Is the last month positive?
    −2.0%✕ No
Score, last 52 weeksRisk-off since 1 Oct
31 Oct 202519 Oct 2026

Fixed rules, the same in every room. Week of 19 Oct 2026.

The rest of the observatory

Seven rooms, one sky.

  • 2,205 NSE stocks
  • 10 years of the Nifty 50
  • 53 weekly log entries
  • 38 lab results
  • refreshed every trading night
Room 02 · BriefingThe five conditions, and how far each is from flippingRisk-offClosest to flipping: momentum, a rise of 2.0% in the Nifty 50 would pass it.Is the index above its long-term trend?Not metAre most stocks participating?Not metIs fear contained?MetIs the index near its highs?Not metIs the last month positive?Not met
Reading live breadth…
Room 06 · LogWeek of 19 Oct 2026Risk-off holds: 1 of 5 conditions met. Nifty 500 breadth 40%, down 2 points. Nifty 50 −1.1% on the week.Room 07 · LaboratoryAfter a 10% fall from the record, what came next?Within the range of chance7 cases since 2016; +5.3% median over six months, against +6.2% after every day.
Room 05 · LensAny of 2,205 stocks, in contextOr browse every stock by sector →
Room 03 · ConstellationsWhich sectors lead, which lagleadinglaggingTelecomForest MaterialsRoom 04 · AlmanacTen years of falls and recoveries−13.1%The Nifty 50 against its record close. Since 19 Oct 2016 it fell 10% or more 7 times and came back from 6.