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Caelion

Log · week of 28 Sep – 1 Oct 2026

Conditions turn Risk-off.

Nifty 500 breadth 40%, down 10 points. Nifty 50 −3.1% on the week.

The five conditions

  • TrendNifty 50 above its 200-day average−8.0%Not met
  • BreadthAt least half the Nifty 500 above their 200-day average40%▽ newNot met
  • FearIndia VIX below its 70th percentile55th percentileMet
  • DepthNifty 50 within 10% of its record close−14.8%Not met
  • MomentumNifty 50 up over one month−6.8%Not met

Changed since last week: breadth no longer met.

The index

Nifty 50 close
22,422
−3.1% on the week
From its record
−14.8%
India VIX
14.46
55th percentile so far

Breadth

Nifty 500 above 200-day
40%
down 10 pts on the week
All 2,174 stocks
43%
Large caps
29%
Small caps
48%

Crossings

Against the 50-day average: 56 crossed above, 288 below.

Rotation

Breadth fell most
  • Utilities60% above▽ −20 pts
  • Auto52% above▽ −14 pts
  • Forest Materials47% above▽ −10 pts
Changed quadrant on the orbit map
  • EnergyLeading → Weakening
  • Consumer svcsLagging → Improving
  • FMCGImproving → Lagging
  • ConstructionLagging → Improving
  • ChemicalsLeading → Weakening
  • TextilesImproving → Leading

Leaders

60 leaders · +42 joined · −42 left

Above both averages and within 5% of the 52-week high. A description of where prices sat, not a selection.